Earlier this year, at NRF 2025, Michelle Evans, Global Lead of Retail and Digital Consumer Insights at Euromonitor International, delivered a compelling analysis of the grocery industry’s rapidly shifting dynamics. Her session, "North American Grocery Retail Trends for 2025," offered attendees a sweeping view into the tensions, technologies, and trends reshaping the way consumers shop for food — and how grocers must respond to stay ahead.

Grocery retail in North America is no longer confined to traditional supermarkets. "We’re seeing food occasions blur. Meal occasions are blurring as well, and we can see that shift in terms of spend," said Evans. Spending is migrating toward convenience-driven formats such as e-commerce, drive-throughs, click-and-collect services, and discount chains. Euromonitor projects e-commerce grocery will grow by 5% in 2025, eclipsing the 2.7% growth in food service and far surpassing the 1% growth forecast for the overall

grocery sector.

Among the top players, Walmart has leveraged its vast store footprint as a distribution powerhouse. "Walmart has made investments in its supply chain, gaining traction in weekly shopping categories like dairy, processed meats, seafood, and soups," Evans noted. It has increased its market share in edible grocery by 5.9% and in non-perishable food by 7.8% since 2022. Conversely, Amazon continues to dominate the non-edible product space, powered by Prime memberships and its subscription-driven model.

One of the most significant shifts in consumer behavior centers on values-based shopping. "The idea of finding a bargain is still the top shopping motivation, but it is on the decline," said Evans. According to Euromonitor’s February 2024 consumer survey, 30% of digital consumers in North America intentionally purchase from brands aligned with their political or social values, while 27% actively boycott brands that do not.

This value-driven decision-making, layered on top of inflationary pressures, has added complexity to the retail environment. "Price alone isn’t the only purchase driver," Evans emphasized. Shoppers are now weighing authenticity, sustainability, and corporate ethics as part of their purchasing equation.

To help retailers navigate these shifting sands, Evans introduced Euromonitor’s "Retail Reinvention Framework," which is built on three pillars: shoppers, industry, and digitalization. Each area reveals a core tension:

• Shoppers: Price vs. Values – A growing expectation for brands to mirror customers' ethics.
  
  
• Industry: Retailers vs. Brands – "Retailers are operating more like brands and brands are operating more like retailers," Evans explained, citing the growth in private labels and the $250 billion direct-to-consumer (DTC) economy.
  
  
• Digitalization: Humanity vs. Technology – While consumers are increasingly open to digital tools, comfort levels depend on the perceived control they retain. "Consumer comfortability with technology hinges on consumers feeling like they have control," Evans said.

Evans illustrated the nuanced relationship consumers have with retail tech. More than 60% of North American shoppers are comfortable with robots guiding them through a store, and over half are okay with robots preparing meals in restaurants. However, comfort drops significantly when more invasive technologies, such as implanted microchips for payment, are introduced.

"It’s about meeting consumers where they’re at," said Evans. Her visit to an Amazon Fresh store in suburban Chicago underscored this balance: "There’s usually someone at the front of the store to help with the smart cart, and if you don’t want to use it, you’ve still got the old-fashioned grocery cart."

This balance is key for retailers as they expand smart capabilities while preserving the human touch.

Retailers are embracing new revenue streams by evolving into media platforms. "Retail media networks have been growing," said Evans. These channels allow grocers to monetize their customer bases, tapping into a rapidly growing form of advertising revenue.

Simultaneously, stores are being redefined as both discovery hubs and last-mile fulfillment centers. "Tech will continue to be integral to continued growth both online and offline," Evans asserted. As 58% of global consumers now browse food online, retailers must orchestrate multi-platform distribution strategies that seamlessly combine convenience, speed, and brand experience.

The grocery retail sector is experiencing a fundamental reinvention — and Michelle Evans made it clear that innovation is no longer optional. With consumer expectations growing and digital behavior evolving rapidly, the industry must lean into technology, deepen emotional alignment with shoppers, and rethink the very function of physical stores.

"Shopping expectations continue to evolve and elevate, requiring grocers to innovate constantly," Evans concluded. The path forward for grocery is not just about selling more — it's about serving smarter, acting faster, and connecting deeper with the values and lifestyles of the modern consumer.

Source: NRF blog posts